For many years, alarmist ‘climate scientists’, who insist a 97% consensus backs their science, have claimed with ‘high certainty’ that global warming heat caused by CO2 would: – “increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones globally”,
We are constantly told by ‘experts’ to look forward to “Super-charged storms, Wildfires, Tornados, Floods, Increased rain & droughts”: all fueled by global warming heat caused by CO2……..BUT, what do you find in the data –
No major change in 250 years.
“Global warming summers will be hot & dry” “More wildfires”
“Cyclones & hurricanes will be more powerful & frequent” MIT and Princeton University
“Moreover, our results indicate that as more carbon dioxide is emitted, the stronger the storms will get”
May 13, 2012 in the journal Nature Climate Change
“Climate change will increase the frequency of heavy rainstorms, putting many communities at risk for devastation from floods” Natural Resources Defense Council
Well, something must be awfully wrong with their science. The exact opposite is true.
(And the same has happened with the temperature, storms, global sea ice, and snow cover predictions).
2015 was a lower than average year for USA Tornados, fewer than 1,200 tornadoes were recorded, well below the annual average of 1,360.see – http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png
& https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/09/09/another-quiet-tornado-year-so-far/ & final total https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/01/04/another-below-average-year-for-us-tornadoes/
2016 has continued the downward trend – with 985 (45% lower than the 2,192 recorded in 2008)
Global cyclone activity is measured by the “Accumulated Cyclone Energy”
(ACE) index over the past four years is at a 45-year low and the trend has been in steep decline since 1990.
[Note: NOAA explains: “The only difference between a hurricane, a cyclone, and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs. Hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are all the same weather phenomenon; we just use different names for these storms in different places. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, the term “hurricane” is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a “typhoon” and “cyclones” occur in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.”]
Hurricane Patricia – Oct 2015, “The Most Dangerous Hurricane In History”
Strange how this ‘Unprecedented’ ‘bigger than Cat 5’ “Most Dangerous Hurricane In History” apparently made land fall as Cat 2, then turned into a “Named Tropical Depression” all in a few hrs; with no deaths
& limited damage.
Turns out there were 6 storms in 2015 with more Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) than Patricia !!
Seems the only records Patricia broke, is for amount of hype & misinformation/ lies generated.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?bas… There are ten notes at the bottom of that page that give some observations about ACE and cyclone actions.
Since Hurricane Katrina struck the USA Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, 2005, climate activists have beat a steady drumbeat warning of doom.
- “Warming seas cause stronger hurricanes“, Nature, 2006 — “Mega-storms are set to increase as the climate hots up.”
- “Are Category 6 Hurricanes Coming Soon?“, Scientific American, 2011 — “Tropical cyclones like Irene are predicted to be more powerful this year, thanks to natural conditions”
- “Global warming is ‘causing more hurricanes’“, The Independent, 2012.
- “A Katrina hurricane will strike every two years“, ScienceNordic, 2013 — About a widely reported study in PNAS by geophysicist Aslak Grinsted of the Niels Bohr Institute Copenhagen U. Also see “‘Katrina-Like’ Hurricanes to Occur More Frequently Due to Warming” in US News & World Reports.
- “Hurricanes Likely to Get Stronger & More Frequent“, Climate Central, 2013 – About a study in PNAS by Kerry Emanuel et al.
- See ten even more outlandish predictions from the big 3 networks.
We should distinguish between the research done by scientists; against the unbalanced reporting of research by nonscientific hack journalists, and exaggeration of their findings by activists.
Science advances by bold predictions, valuable no matter what the result.
Of course, studies are news. But journalists often do not state the long-term scope of these forecasts, hide the uncertainty, and show only one side of the debate among scientists. There were balanced articles after Katrina, but too few to counterbalance the alarmists.
This 2 page article explains the real reasons why Katrina was so devastating (clue; NOT global warming).
Number of Global Cyclones:
Totals for Aug 2016: Bottom line ► Atlantic and Northeast Pacific = 42. Top line ► Rest of world = 83.
Cyclone total energy:http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/ACE-2015-Maue.png
Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity; PDF shows a falling trend – http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2630932
If you look at the historical data, it looks like The Atlantic is entering in to a new quieter cycle of storm activity,
As was seen in 1900s-1920s & the 1970s -1980s.
Analyses of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability.
Three-year-averaged ACE (green line) and three-year-averaged standardized normalized AMO (blueline) from 1880–2014 with predicted value for 2015 (red squares). The 2015 AMO value is the January–June-averaged value. The year listed is the third year being averaged (for example, 1880?is the 1878–1880 average). Correlation between the two time series is 0.61.
Source:- The journal Nature Geoscience. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n10/fig_tab/ngeo2529_F1.html
- US Summers Were Much Hotter And Drier Prior To 1960 – https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/09/15/us-summers-were-much-hotter-and-drier-prior-to-1960/
For instance – Prior to 1960, wildfires in the US burned far more acres than they do now.
Maybe the Wildfires chart is showing why they use CO2 for fire extinguishers ??
For instance: Could California’s Drought Last 200 Years? http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/140213-california-drought-record-agriculture-pdo-climate/
Yet still more people move to California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California#Climate (an arid climate) like lemmings, (using ~300 gallons per person per day) then ….complain of drought !! http://www.thirty-thousand.org/graphics/chart_CA_A.png
Lets build on ‘flood plains’ (the clue in the name), if they flood, blame act of God or…. climate change !!
Unprecedented floods….again & again !! -1809, 1862, 1903, 1912, 1947, 1953 https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/09/21/extreme-rain-months-at-oxford/
Most deaths by flooding occurred before we had ‘global warming !! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deadliest_floods
More on floods – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/tag/floods/
Severe-weather death toll
The 2014 USA severe-weather death toll was the lowest in ten years – http://www.globalwarming.org/2015/11/23/2014-lowest-u-s-severe-weather-death-toll-in-ten-years/
Historical Extreme Weather
Despite common perception Weather events have not increased over time… but observation & recording have.
(If a tornado happens on a lonely prairie, and no one video’s it, did it happen?)
580-1899 http://worldtimeline.info/weather/ ,
Some extreme world weather records http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/infographic-world-weather-records-severe-tropical/44856092
Harsh winters, UK list
1684 River Thames froze for two months solid
1739-40 A severe frost that continued from Christmas Day, 1739, to February 17th, 1740.
Temperatures dropped to -9C at one point.
1836 A tremendous blizzard and strong winds hit the whole of the south
1927 A blizzard which began on Christmas Day in the Midlands and Wales and resulted in some of the heaviest snowfalls of the 20th Century in Britain
1933 48 hours of continuous snowfall.
1940 The Thames froze for the first time since 1880 and Sheffield saw 4ft of snow.
1952-53 In terms of loss of life the winter of 1952 was among the worst. It is believed the smog may have accounted for as many as 12,000 lives. the East Coast storm surge of 1953, the famous Lymouth disaster
1946-1947 The cold spells continued until March which saw heavy snow.
1962-1963 Saw the coldest weather for two hundred years. At its height a 36-hour blizzard caused heavy drifting snow in most parts of the country.
1978-1979 The run up to 1978 had, rather like 2015, been mild and dry in November – up until around the 24th of the month. As 1979 began the country was engulfed by blizzards and deep snow
Complete listing from 1616 (a lot of cold winters)
Central England Temperature extremes, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature#Hottest
England and Wales Precipitation extremes, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_and_Wales_Precipitation
Wettest ever ….the 1870’s!
‘Unprecedented’ (never done or known before) floods
Over the last few years the UK has been subjected to a number of major flooding events; we are told these are ‘unprecedented’ & due to ‘global warming’.
Human induced, CO2 driven catastrophic global warming / climate change (according to Warmists) only started in the
So in that case, what caused these ?? – British Pathe films about flooding, between 1910 and 1969. http://www.britishpathe.com/workspaces/gaelle/PfZQgWrQ
York floods, Xmas 2015 reported as ‘unprecedented’ at 5.2m.: but in 2000 it was 5.4 & 1625 they had 11m.
The river Ouse caries millions of tons of silt & gravel every year, but the Environment Agency (EA) has cut the amount of dredging in the area over the last 10 years, reducing the capacity of the river to cope with any sustained rainfall.
The Foss flood barrier failed on Boxing Day 2015 because the EA (to save money) had put all the electrical gear BELOW known flood levels. !!
http://coolgeography.co.uk/A-level/AQA/Year%2012/Rivers_Floods/Flooding/York%20Flooding.htm You couldn’t make it up.
York was undergoing periodic winter floods at the end of the Roman occupation (coincidentally ~ the end of the Roman Warm Period; a climate change – too many chariots perhaps ?? ) around 400 AD; it has been flooded almost every year since.
The Somerset levels 2014 ~ 65 km² was submerged because of high, but NOT exceptional (see precipitation chart ?) rainfall, coupled with 20 years of the Environment Agency refusing to dredge the rivers Cary, Yeo, Tone & Parrett, arguing that it is ‘anti-environmental’ !!
In 1919, 280 km² was submerged, but that was a saltwater storm surge coupled with reduction of dredging in the First World War.
Water Management in the English Landscape: Field, Marsh and Meadow – https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ydXFAm75n0IC
Interesting bit of info here – https://sites.google.com/site/moonrakinimages/rof-pumps (I haven’t verified it yet, but it sounds about right)
History of The Somerset levels – http://www.british-history.ac.uk/vch/som/vol8/pp1-7 & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerset_Levels#Flooding
In 1607 a major storm in Somerset swept away villages down the Bristol Channel killing approx. 2,000 people (a high % of the local population). http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/1607-flood.shtml Download full paper here – http://ro.uow.edu.au/scipapers/94/
The Lake District
Severe floods also occurred in the Cockermouth Cumbria area in 1761, 1771, 1852, 1874, 1918, 1924, 1931/32/33, 1938, 1966,2005,2008,2009. (Environment agency). More detail here – https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/the-cumbrian-floods-in-perspective/
500 year old Tyne Bridge in Newcastle collapsed from a massive flood, 12feet above high water (in 1771).
Account & pictures – https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/12/29/the-great-flood-of-1771/
July 1930 Devastating flood, Castleton N Yorks, 11.97 inches (304mm) of rain in 4 days. https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/12/30/devastating-yorkshire-floods-1930/
Calder Valley floods: 1837, 1859, 1866, 1891, 1901, 1920, 1946, 1954 (10ft above normal), 1967, https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/11/30/the-great-flood-of-1862/
Sheffield flood: 11 March 1864, 5,000 properties affected, 240 killed. Storm + dam fail. http://www.mick-armitage.staff.shef.ac.uk/sheffield/flood.html
Catastrophic floods & high rainfall are nothing new, and there is no evidence that “climate change” had anything to do with any of the above, they are just extreme weather events.
Interesting piece on land drainage.